Champions League

Champions League | Quarter-Finals

Apr 6, 2021 at 8pm UK

Etihad Stadium

Man City
2 - 1
Dortmund

De Bruyne (19'), Foden (90')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Reus (84')
Can (30'), Bellingham (37')

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The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 62.86%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.36%) and 3-1 (7.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.43%), while for a Borussia Dortmund win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Manchester City in this match.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
62.86%	19.14%	18%

Both teams to score 61.57%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.92%

33.08%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.18%

54.82%

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.89%

10.11%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.72%

33.28%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.49%

31.51%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.11%

67.9%

Score Analysis

Manchester City 62.86%

Borussia Dortmund 18%

Draw 19.14%

Manchester City	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.66% 2-0 @ 8.36% 3-1 @ 7.38% 1-0 @ 7.3% 3-0 @ 6.39% 3-2 @ 4.26% 4-1 @ 4.23% 4-0 @ 3.66% 4-2 @ 2.44% 5-1 @ 1.94% 5-0 @ 1.68% 5-2 @ 1.12% 4-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 3.5% Total : 62.86%	1-1 @ 8.43% 2-2 @ 5.58% 0-0 @ 3.19% 3-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 0.3% Total : 19.14%	1-2 @ 4.87% 0-1 @ 3.68% 2-3 @ 2.15% 0-2 @ 2.13% 1-3 @ 1.87% Other @ 3.31% Total : 18%