Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ferencvaros win with a probability of 58.16%. A win for The New Saints had a probability of 21.23% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ferencvaros win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8%) and 1-0 (7.53%). The likeliest The New Saints win was 1-2 (5.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ferencvaros would win this match.