Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for FC Midtjylland had a probability of 34.55% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.37%) and 2-0 (6.01%). The likeliest FC Midtjylland win was 1-2 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.