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Champions League
Benfica
Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Aug 2, 2022 at 8pm UK
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Midtjylland

Benfica
4 - 1
Midtjylland

Ramos (17', 33', 61'), Fernandez (40')
Otamendi (22'), Morato (77')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Sisto (78' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Benfica and FC Midtjylland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

Last Six:
    Last Game: Benfica 3-2 Newcastle
    Tuesday, July 26 at 8pm in Club Friendlies 1

    FC Midtjylland

    Last Six:
    Last Game: Odense 1-5 Midtjylland
    Friday, July 29 at 6pm in Danish Superliga

    We said: Benfica 2-1 FC Midtjylland

     Midtjylland are certainly capable of making this an uncomfortable match for Benfica, but we are struggling to back the visitors with any real confidence. Benfica should do enough to claim an advantage ahead of the second leg, but we are expecting the tie to still be open heading into the return fixture. Read more.

    Data Analysis

    Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for FC Midtjylland had a probability of 34.55% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

    The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.37%) and 2-0 (6.01%). The likeliest FC Midtjylland win was 1-2 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

    Result
    BenficaDrawFC Midtjylland
    41.67%23.78% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01) 34.55% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
    Both teams to score 61.87% (0.031999999999996 0.03)
    Goals
    Over 2.5Under 2.5
    59.83% (0.040000000000006 0.04)40.17% (-0.041000000000004 -0.04)
    Over 3.5Under 3.5
    37.46% (0.042000000000002 0.04)62.54% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
    Benfica Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    80.42% (0.01700000000001 0.02)19.57% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    48.5% (0.027999999999999 0.03)51.5% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
    FC Midtjylland Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    76.93% (0.024000000000001 0.02)23.07% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    43.09% (0.033000000000001 0.03)56.9% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
    Score Analysis
        Benfica 41.67%
        FC Midtjylland 34.55%
        Draw 23.78%
    BenficaDrawFC Midtjylland
    2-1 @ 8.81% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
    1-0 @ 7.37% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
    2-0 @ 6.01% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
    3-1 @ 4.79% (0.0019999999999998 0)
    3-2 @ 3.51% (0.004 0)
    3-0 @ 3.27% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
    4-1 @ 1.95% (0.002 0)
    4-2 @ 1.43% (0.002 0)
    4-0 @ 1.33%
    Other @ 3.21%
    Total : 41.67%
    		1-1 @ 10.8%
    2-2 @ 6.46% (0.0039999999999996 0)
    0-0 @ 4.52% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
    3-3 @ 1.72% (0.0030000000000001 0)
    Other @ 0.28%
    Total : 23.78%
    		1-2 @ 7.92%
    0-1 @ 6.62% (-0.008 -0.01)
    0-2 @ 4.86% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
    1-3 @ 3.87% (0.0029999999999997 0)
    2-3 @ 3.16% (0.004 0)
    0-3 @ 2.37%
    1-4 @ 1.42% (0.002 0)
    2-4 @ 1.16% (0.002 0)
    Other @ 3.17%
    Total : 34.55%

    How you voted: Benfica vs Midtjylland

    Benfica
    87.1%
    Draw
    6.1%
    FC Midtjylland
    6.8%
    147
    rhs 2.0
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