Sutton United are looking to extend their current eight-game unbeaten run in all competitions on Saturday, when they travel to Brunton Park, where they will face 20th-placed Carlisle United.
After three consecutive League Two victories, Carlisle are now winless in their last three outings, though they remain safely away from the relegation zone, sitting eight points above 23rd spot.
Match preview
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Carlisle faced a tough test last time out, when they travelled to league leaders Forest Green, and with a helping hand from the Blues' Morgan Feeney, who opened the scoring with an own goal, the table toppers defeated Carlisle 3-0.
That was their heaviest defeat since October, and conceding three goals was uncharacteristic for Carlisle, given that they have the same defensive record as their visitors on Saturday, who sit in fourth position.
Keith Millen's side will be glad to be back on home soil this Saturday, having only lost three of their 13 matches at Brunton Park, compared to eight defeats on their travels, but the hosts are not expected to provide much attacking threat.
Carlisle have only netted nine times on their own patch this season, but they are unbeaten in their last four League Two games in Cumbria and will be aiming to make that five by avoiding defeat in this encounter.
Sutton will prove to be a difficult challenge for Carlisle, as they travel up north with the automatic promotion spots firmly in sight, sitting behind Newport on goal difference but with a game in hand on the Welsh outfit.
Matt Gray's side have had fewer days rest ahead of this outing, having progressed into the semi-final of the EFL Trophy on Tuesday, when Craig Eastmond's 80th-minute strike was enough to sink Harrogate Town.
On Saturday, Sutton avoided being leapfrogged by Northampton as the two teams played out a goalless draw at the Knights Community Stadium, where both sides created enough chances to take all three points.
The Yellows' league position is mainly due to their good points return at home this season, having collected 12 more points on their own patch, but they need to collect three points against sides in the bottom half of the table home or away if they are to climb into the top three.
A repeat of the result that Sutton secured in the reverse of this fixture would be welcomed by this weekend's visitors, having beaten Carlisle 4-0 earlier in the season, thanks to goals from Donovan Wilson, David Ajiboye and a brace from Alistair Smith.
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Team News
Carlisle right-back Kelvin Mellor was forced off after just 36 minutes due to injury against Hartlepool, and was absent from the squad in their last outing, so new signing Joel Senior is expected to continue in the full-back role.
The home team will line up in a 4-4-2 formation, with Omari Patrick, who returned to the club from Burton Albion this month, and Tyrese Omotoye likely to lead the line.
Jordan Gibson and Brennan Dickenson are likely to provide the width for Carlisle, and with six goals and four assists between them this campaign, the wide duo offer a big attacking threat.
Sutton midfielder Eastmond was shown a straight red card against Northampton, but the club's appeal against the decision was successful meaning that he could retain his place in the side last time out, and it was vital that he did as he went on to score the winning goal.
The visitors are also expected to operate in a 4-4-2 formation, and could name the same starting 11 which played last weekend against Northampton, meaning that Omar Bugiel and Isaac Olaofe will continue as Sutton's furthest-forward players.
Carlisle United possible starting lineup:
Howard; Armer, McDonald, Feeney, Senior; Gibson, Mellish, Guy, Dickenson; Omotoye, Patrick
Sutton United possible starting lineup:
Bouzanis; Milsom, John, Goodliffe, Kizzi; Randall, Eastmond, Smith, Ajiboye; Bugiel, Olaofe
We say: Carlisle United 0-2 Sutton United
Sutton should be able to carry on their forward momentum by collecting another three points on Saturday, taking advantage of any lost confidence for Carlisle due to their heavy defeat last weekend.
The hosts have not been very prolific in front of goal this season and that will play into the hands of Sutton, who will be looking to keep a clean sheet for a third straight game in all competitions.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 36.83%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 34.27% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.61%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (11.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Sutton United in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sutton United.
