Lyon will be desperate to get their Ligue 1 title charge back on track when they travel to an inconsistent Brest outfit on Friday evening.
Olivier Dall'Oglio's men played out a goalless stalemate with Lille in their last top-flight fixture, while Lyon's hopes of silverware took a huge blow with defeat to Montpellier HSC.
Match preview
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Having already scored 37 goals and shipped 44 at the wrong end of the pitch, a game involving Brest this season was never expected to finish 0-0, not least against a table-topping Lille side.
However, Les Pirates produced an unforeseen display of defensive resilience to keep the league leaders at bay and take a deserved point from the clash, which saw them stretch their unbeaten run across all competitions to four matches after a promising start to February.
Brest have become synonymous with inconsistency this term - having lost four of their five games in January - but Dall'Oglio's men have overcome Bordeaux in the league and Rodez in the Coupe de France this month, so it is now simply a question of whether the 12th-placed Pirates can string a set of solid results together in the coming weeks.
The hosts navigated the Lille test with professionalism and were full value for their point, but Friday's clash with Lyon is followed up by another game against a title hopeful in Monaco, so there would be plenty of cause for optimism for the Stade Francis-Le Ble faithful if their side can somehow remain unbeaten this month.
Only two of Brest's last nine matches at home have ended with the visitors travelling back with all three points, and they have notched up at least two goals in seven of their last eight on familiar territory - potentially a positive omen before they face off against a shell-shocked Lyon.
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The visitors' ambitions of a first Ligue 1 title since 2008 suffered a devastating blow against Montpellier last Saturday, with the resurgent Paillade netting through Teji Savanier and Elye Wahi either side of a Lucas Paqueta equaliser at the Groupama Stadium.
Thankfully for Rudi Garcia, two of their title rivals in Lille and Monaco also failed to take maximum points from their gameweek 25 encounters, but Paris Saint-Germain were able to take advantage of their adversaries' slip-ups to leapfrog Lyon - who now sit third - in the table.
A mere three-point gap separates Les Gones from first-placed Lille at this stage, but any more mistakes in the coming weeks could end up proving catastrophic for Lyon in their bid for glory, although their away record speaks for itself ahead of their journey to the Stade Francis-Le Ble.
Garcia's side have not lost on the road since September 15 - also to Montpellier - and they have taken the spoils in seven of their 10 outings on rival territory since then. Lyon would rise back to the summit before the weekend's fixtures should they make it three away wins on the bounce this weekend, and at least one of PSG or Monaco will be dropping points in Sunday's crunch match.
However, Brest claimed a share of the spoils in a 2-2 draw with Lyon at the Groupama Stadium earlier this term, and Lyon have not won on their opponents' turf since 1989, with the last four encounters ending in stalemates.
Brest Ligue 1 form: LLLDWD
Brest form (all competitions): LLDWWD
Lyon Ligue 1 form: LWWWWL
Lyon form (all competitions): WWWWWL
Team News
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Brest are in terrific shape fitness-wise at the moment, with long-term absentee Denys Bain - battling an ACL problem - the only injury concern for Dall'Oglio, but Jean Lucas will not be facing his parent club.
The hosting manager is expected to keep faith with the majority of the same XI that held on for a point at Lyon last Sunday, although Irvin Cardona will be vying for a start alongside Steve Mounie up top as Dall'Oglio works around Lucas's absence.
Sebastien Cibois has demoted former first-choice goalkeeper Gautier Larsonneur down the bench in recent weeks and is in no danger of losing his place after keeping a clean sheet at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Lyon received a huge boost at the weekend with Jason Denayer back among the substitutes, and the centre-back makes a timely return with Marcelo going off with a calf problem in the defeat to Montpellier.
Garcia has confirmed that the 33-year-old will not make the cut for the trip to Brest, so Denayer is guaranteed to come back into the rearguard alongside Sinaly Diomande.
The visiting manager may decide to shuffle the pack in midfield after that defeat given his plethora of options, with Bruno Guimaraes potentially in line to replace Houssem Aouar.
Brest possible starting lineup:
Cibois; Pierre-Gabriel, Herelle, Chardonnet, Perraud; Honorat, Lasne, Belkebla, Faivre; Mounie, Cardona
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Dubois, Denayer, Diomande, Cornet; Mendes, Guimaraes, Paqueta; Kadewere, Depay, Toko Ekambi
We say: Brest 1-3 Lyon
Brest will be determined to prove that their inspired defensive performance at Lille was not just a one-off, but the stats are pointing towards a goal-fest in this game. The hosts are difficult to predict at the best of times, while the prospect of returning to the top of the table and heaping the pressure on their title rivals should be all the motivation needed for Lyon to return to winning ways, so we are backing Garcia's men to prevail on Friday.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 57.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Brest had a probability of 20.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.83%) and 0-1 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.88%), while for a Brest win it was 2-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
