League Two playoff hopefuls Bradford City and an ailing Leyton Orient get their packed February schedules under way on Tuesday, when they meet at Valley Parade.
Though the Bantams lost in stoppage time on Saturday, they have an immediate chance to redeem themselves in front of their home fans and will expect to bounce back against a visiting side who are winless in 2022.
Match preview
© Reuters
Taking an unbeaten streak of four League Two games into their weekend game with Crawley Town, improving Bradford had lost just once at their Valley Parade headquarters this season.
However, events during the final moments saw that admirable record take a hit, and conceding second-half headers to the visitors' Tom Nichols and Tony Craig - the latter netting a winner five minutes into stoppage time - saw Andy Cook's 10th goal of the season rendered meaningless.
Despite an angry analysis of his team's defending in the post-match briefing, Bantams manager Derek Adams has recently seen his side climb to 11th in the table thanks to an upturn in fortunes since the turn of the year, and their pursuit of a top-seven spot remains alive.
After beating fellow promotion chasers Salford City 2-1 in mid-January, and then playing out a goalless draw with Rochdale, the West Yorkshire outfit had registered three wins from five with an away victory over Walsall - so are still within six points of the playoff places despite Saturday's setback.
Even though they have been beaten just twice on home soil ahead of Leyton Orient's visit, Bradford have also taken maximum points just four times at Valley Parade from 13 attempts in their league campaign.
Drawing seven matches there has certainly undermined the club's efforts in mounting a sustained promotion push, but they will still fancy their chances of exacting revenge for a 2-0 defeat to Tuesday's opponents back in August.
© Reuters
Since their Brisbane Road success over Bradford in the early throes of the season, Kenny Jackett's Orient side have been unable to push on either - largely due to some awful away form.
A solitary victory from their 12 games on the road to date tells its own story, and much like Bradford, a series of frustrating draws has been at the heart of their mid-table malaise.
Still with one of the best defensive records in the division, the O's are also a top-seven side when it comes to goalscoring in League Two. However, they are currently on a six-match winless run in all competitions following Saturday's defeat at in-form Mansfield.
Two goals down heading into the final quarter of the game, substitute Aaron Drinan struck the outside of the post and later headed against the crossbar from close range, and Orient's unlucky streak runs on.
Now sitting 10 points behind Swindon in seventh - though with a game in hand - they approach their latest midweek fixture four points adrift of Bradford, having played two matches fewer due to cancellations. Therefore, a form-defying win on Tuesday would close the gap to both and keep slim hopes alive of finally returning to the third tier.
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Derek Adams made no secret of his dismay with how Bradford's defence handled the final minutes of the loss to Crawley, and criticism for both Finn Cousin-Dawson and Niall Canavan could see the pair's places in jeopardy.
After setting up the Bantams' goal on Saturday, Charles Vernam was forced off in the second half due to a hamstring issue and is a major doubt for Tuesday's game. In his likely absence, Huddersfield Town loanee Matty Daly and Jamie Walker (loaned from Hearts) will share the creative burden behind top scorer Andy Cook.
Having recently arrived on loan from Salford, after Lee Angol suffered a hamstring injury against Rochdale, powerful striker Tom Elliott will provide another striking option for Adams.
Ultimately to no avail, Kenny Jackett made five changes from Orient's midweek defeat to Newport on Saturday, bringing in Paul Smyth and Scottish winger Theo Archibald - who made his return from a foot injury - among others.
However, Smyth came off injured at the interval against Mansfield to be replaced by Matt Young, and the teenager may well start in central midfield at Valley Parade.
If Jackett opts for that selection, the 18-year-old could partner Ethan Coleman - just three years Young's senior - who made his engine-room debut on Saturday after signing from King's Lynn.
Bradford City possible starting lineup:
Bass; Cousin-Dawson, O'Connor, Canavan, Foulds; Cooke, Songo'o; Gilliead, Walker, Daly; Cook
Leyton Orient possible starting lineup:
Vigouroux; Happe, Beckles, Mitchell; Khan, Coleman, Young, Archibald; Sotiriou; Smith, Drinan
We say: Bradford City 1-1 Leyton Orient
A meeting of draw specialists with two of the better defensive records in the league should lend itself to a low-scoring stalemate.
Despite their recent improvement and Orient's struggles, Bradford are set to be frustrated again in front of their supporters by a visiting side desperate to break their barren spell.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bradford City win with a probability of 44%. A win for Leyton Orient had a probability of 28.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bradford City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Leyton Orient win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
