A crucial Ligue 1 relegation battle will take place at the Nouveau Stade de Bordeaux as basement club Bordeaux lock horns with Troyes on Sunday afternoon.
Bordeaux and Troyes are two of four teams level on 22 points in the bottom four, and a win for either side this weekend would provide them with a much-needed boost in their bid for survival.
Match preview
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Bordeaux's dreadful run of six straight league defeats, conceding 21 goals in the process, eventually came to an end with a 1-1 draw at home against Monaco and they have since followed that up with another draw by the same scoreline away at Clermont last weekend.
Josuha Guilavogui's 13th-minute header to open the scoring was cancelled out by a sweet right-footed strike from Elbasan Rashani just after the half-hour mark, forcing both sides to share the spoils.
The arrival of head coach David Guion, who replaced Vladimir Petkovic last month, has at least steadied the ship slightly, but there is still plenty of work to do if they are to avoid relegation to the second tier for the first time since 1990, when demotion was forced upon them due to their budget deficit.
Bordeaux are now preparing for what could prove to be a pivotal contest at home against a Troyes outfit, who they have beaten in each of their last five Ligue 1 meetings – their best current run against any opponent in the French top flight.
Victory on Sunday would see them climb out of the relegation zone if Saint-Etienne and Metz share the spoils when they face off in the South East of France.
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After two heavy defeats away at Brest and Rennes, losing 5-1 and 4-1 respectively, Troyes responded with a hard-fought 1-1 draw at home against Marseille last weekend.
Substitute Yoann Touzghar netted a dramatic 90th-minute equaliser from close range, cancelling out Dimitri Payet's first-half opener from the penalty spot, to rescue a much-needed point on home soil.
Touzghar's late strike was a rare goal in the second half for Troyes, who have now scored just seven times after the break in Ligue 1 this season, the joint-lowest total in Europe's top-five leagues along with Premier League side Norwich City.
While Bruno Irles will have been impressed with his team's never-say-die attitude, ESTAC have now extended their winless league run to five matches, and they are still hovering above the relegation playoff position only by goal difference.
Troyes travel to Bordeaux after failing to win in any of their last six visits to the Nouveau Stade de Bordeaux, though their last trip was back in August 2017 when they lost 2-1.
ESTAC have the second-worst away record in Ligue 1 this season, with only Lorient (eight) accumulating fewer points than Irles's side (10) at this stage. With their next two away fixtures against relegation rivals Bordeaux and Saint-Etienne, Troyes will be desperate to take advantage and claim maximum points as they bid to steer themselves away from danger.
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Team News
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Bordeaux are sweating over the fitness of first-choice goalkeeper Benoit Costil, who is doubtful with a calf injury, while Jimmy Briand's foot problem will also be assessed ahead of kickoff.
The hosts are unable to call upon Enock Kwateng (hamstring) and Alberth Elis (knee) due to injury, the latter having scored nine goals in 13 league starts this season.
Guion may decide to stick with the 3-4-2-1 formation which he used last weekend, which will likely see Yacine Adli and Remi Oudin providing support in attack for central striker Hwang Ui-jo.
As for Troyes, midfielder Florian Tardieu will serve a one-match suspension following an accumulation of yellow cards, while Renaud Ripart and Karim Azamoum are ruled out with respective thigh and knee injuries.
Xavier Chavalerin, who is the visitors' top goalscorer with only five strikes this term, is the most likely candidate to replace Tardieu, joining Rominigue Kouame and Tristan Dingome in centre-midfield.
After scoring the equaliser last time out, Touzghar will be hoping to force his way into the first XI ahead of either Ike Ugbo or Mama Balde up front.
Bordeaux possible starting lineup:
Poussin; Gregersen, Marcelo, Ahmedhodzic; Pembele, Guilavogui, Onana, Mensah; Adli, Oudin; Hwang
Troyes possible starting lineup:
Gallon; Salmier, Rami, Palmer-Brown; Kabore, Kouame, Dingome, Chavalerin, Conte; Touzghar, Ugbo
We say: Bordeaux 2-1 Troyes
A closely-fought contest between two relegation-threatened sides is set to take place on Sunday, and both teams will fancy their chances of claiming three crucial points.
Neither side can afford to lose and although there is little to separate them, Bordeaux's two performances since the appointment of Bruno Irles suggests that they may do enough to edge past Troyes and claim a slender win on home soil.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bordeaux win with a probability of 48.83%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bordeaux win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.39%). The likeliest Troyes win was 0-1 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
