Basement side Boavista travel to Portimonense on Saturday as they look to put an end to a nine-match winless run in the league and lift themselves off the foot of the Primeira Liga table.
Although Portimonense sit five league places above their visitors, just four points separate the sides in an extremely competitive bottom half of the table, where one result could vastly change the landscape.
Match preview
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The hosts come into this clash with some fairly promising form, having won two and drawn one their last four league matches.
Last time out, Dener Gomes Clemente scored in the final 10 minutes to salvage a point for his side away at seventh-placed Moreirense after Lucas Possignolo gave them an early lead.
This came after a solid 1-0 home victory over Belenenses, where Clemente was on the scoresheet again as he netted the winner after 17 minutes, securing a fourth league win of the season for Paulo Sergio's side - just three league victories fewer than they managed in the entirety of last season.
Sergio was appointed as manager in February 2020, and despite improving their league form, he saw his side finish the season in the relegation zone, one point behind Vitoria de Setubal. However, due to financial issues, Vitoria were relegated down to Portugal's third tier, resulting in Portimonense being restored to the Primeira Liga.
While they appear to sit in a much more secure position currently, the side from the Algarve are far from safe, sitting just two points above Gil Vicente, who occupy the relegation playoff place, and three points above Farense in the automatic relegation spots.
Sergio will see this game as a great opportunity to pick up three points and gain some more crucial distance from the league's bottom three after some impressive recent form.
A 2-0 home win over Farense in early January means that Portimonense have picked up a very commendable seven points out of the available 12 in their last four matches. A second-half Beto brace saw Sergio's side leapfrog their opponents, moving further up the pack of sides battling to avoid the drop.
Meanwhile, Boavista will be desperate for a win which could lift them off the foot of the table and give them a good chance of escaping the relegation zone, given the competitive nature of this section of the league.
Jesualdo Ferreira's side have picked up just one win in the league this season from 15 games, a surprise 3-0 victory over title hopefuls Benfica with Angel Gomes, Alberth Elis and Yanis Hamache finding the net to seal an eye-catching victory.
However, since Ferreira's return to the Boavista hot seat in December, he has seen his team pick up just three points from six fixtures.
Boasting the league's joint-worst defensive record, with no side conceding more than their 26 goals from 15 games, the 74-year-old has a tough job on his hands to turn around the fortunes of a struggling side, but this game does offer a good chance to do so and pick up a second league victory of the season.
Despite a disappointing 3-1 loss to fellow strugglers Tondela, recent draws against Santa Clara and Pacos de Ferreira do offer signs of encouragement for As Panteras, while a 2-0 loss last time out against league leaders Sporting, where Pedro Porro only added the second goal after 77 minutes, could also provide some reason for optimism for Ferreira and his players.
Portimonense Primeira Liga form: DLWLWD
Boavista Primeira Liga form: DLDDLL
Team News
Portimonense will still be without Lucas Fernandes and Pedro Sa, who remain injured. Neither player has featured since the turn of the year due to long-term injuries.
Goalkeeper Samuel could return to the squad if available for selection. The Brazilian missed the last two matches after a positive COVID-19 test, having previously featured in every league game for Paulo Sergio.
Meanwhile, the away side will be boosted by the returns of Cristian Devenish and Chidozie Awaziem, who both served suspensions in the 2-0 loss to Sporting Lisbon after receiving red cards in the loss to Tondela.
Boavista could be reliant on Angel Gomes to produce the goods in this important clash, with the Lille loanee and former Manchester United prospect registering three goals and five assists in the Primeira Liga this season, despite often lacking support going forward.
We also expect the visitors to switch back to the more familiar system of four defenders in a game where they may feel they have a real chance of winning, after they moved to a more defensive shape for the match against Sporting. The returning Awaziem and Devenish could partner up in the middle of the defence.
Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Moufi, Possignolo, Antonio, Anzai; Clemente, Rocha, Ewerton; Boa Morte, Moreira, Fabricio
Boavista possible starting lineup:
Leonardo; Cannon, Devenish, Awaziem, Mangas; Paulinho, Garcia, Santos; Sauer, Gomes, Elis
We say: Portimonense 2-1 Boavista
While Boavista could see this as one of their best opportunities to pick up a much-needed win, we believe the good form of Portimonense will allow them to take advantage of a weak side who are low on confidence. We see the home side coming out with a narrow win in this game.
Top betting tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 43.86%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 27.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.95%) and 2-1 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.14%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
