Two of the Championship's most inconsistent sides go head to head on Saturday as Blackburn Rovers host Luton Town.
Both clubs have shown plenty of promise this season but have not performed regularly enough to mount a playoff push and sit 10th and 13th in the table respectively.
Match preview
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Blackburn are the league's top scorers with 40 goals to their name but put in a more defensive-minded display against Middlesbrough last weekend as Joe Rothwell's second-half goal secured a 1-0 win.
Tony Mowbray admitted that while he would have preferred his team to play free-flowing football, a physical and committed performance was needed to grind out the win.
The victory brought only Blackburn's second clean sheet in their last 12 games and helped close the gap on a Boro side a couple of places above them.
Rovers now sit six points behind the top six so there is still time to get themselves into the playoff mix, but they have not put consecutive victories together since the beginning of December.
However, they have proven hard to beat at home, losing just one of their last eight league matches at Ewood Park and that came against league leaders Norwich City.
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Luton travel to Lancashire with only one victory in their last eight away games, and they suffered a 3-1 defeat to Chelsea in the FA Cup fourth round last weekend.
However, the Hatters left Stamford Bridge with their heads held high after putting in a brave showing and were very much in the tie until Tammy Abraham completed his hat-trick in the 74th-minute.
Goalscorer Jordan Clark has suggested that the team's performance will give them confidence for the rest of the Championship season and admitted that they are still aiming to get into the playoffs.
Nathan Jones's side are nine points off the top six and have three games against teams below them coming up so victory at Ewood Park could set them up for the start of a strong period.
Blackburn have won just one of their last seven games against Luton, while the reverse fixture in November finished 1-1, with the goals from Luke Berry and Sam Gallagher coming within three minutes of each other.
Blackburn Rovers Championship form: LDLWDW
Blackburn Rovers form (all competitions): DLWLDW
Luton Town Championship form: DLWLWL
Luton Town form (all competitions): WWLWLL
Team News
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Bradley Johnson limped off with a hamstring problem just ten minutes into Blackburn's match against Middlesbrough last weekend so he is a doubt for Saturday.
Johnson's potential absence could lead to a midfield shake up, with Rothwell potentially moving from the left wing into the centre, and Bradley Dack earning just a second start since his return from a long-term injury; that scenario would also allow Sam Gallagher to come back into the starting lineup in the front three.
Joe Morrell and Martin Cranie have been back in Luton training this week after recent injuries and could be available for the trip to Ewood Park.
James Collins should come back in upfront after dropping to the bench against Chelsea, while there is likely to be a first league start for January signing Kal Naismith at left-back.
Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Kaminski; Nyambe, Lenihan, Branthwaite, Douglas; Travis, Rothwell, Dack; Elliott, Armstrong, Gallagher
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Sluga; Bree, Lockyer, Bradley, Naismith; Rea; Cornick, Berry, Dewsbury-Hall, Clark; Collins
We say: Blackburn Rovers 1-1 Luton Town
Given that these two sides are close together in the table and have both had unpredictable seasons to date, this is a tough one to call. Blackburn have more attacking quality, but Luton are not easily overawed and could take a point from Ewood Park.
Top betting tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Blackburn Rovers win with a probability of 51.8%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 22.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Blackburn Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (7.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Blackburn Rovers in this match.
