UEFA Nations League

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Nations League | League A

Sep 8, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Roi Baudouin

Belgium
5 - 1
Iceland

Witsel (13'), Batshuayi (17', 69'), Mertens (50'), Doku (80')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Fridjonsson (11')
Hermannsson (12')

Preview: Belgium vs. Iceland - prediction, team news, lineups

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter

Published: September 6 2020 | 11:30

Last updated: June 5 2024 | 13:45

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's UEFA Nations League fixture between Belgium and Iceland, including team news and injury news.

Belgium play host to Iceland in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday evening on the back of registering a 2-0 victory away in Denmark.

Meanwhile, a last-gasp missed penalty led to Group A2 minnows Iceland succumbing to a 1-0 defeat at the hands of England in Reykjavik.

Match preview

Roberto Martinez pictured ahead of Belgium's Euro 2020 qualifier against Russia on March 21, 2019 © Reuters

Having won each of their 10 international fixtures during 2019, Roberto Martinez would have demanded that Belgium retain their high standards for what was a testing return fixture in Denmark at the weekend.

An early goal from Jason Denayer set De Rode Duivels on their way, before Dries Mertens wrapped up the result in Copenhagen with 14 minutes remaining.

Although this was not the free-scoring Belgian side which averaged four goals per game last year, it was a statement of intent from a nation who will feel that they should be favourites to win Euro 2020 next summer.

The professional performance came without the involvement of Thibaut Courtois and Eden Hazard, highlighting that Martinez does not necessarily require all of his stars to get the better of solid opposition.

With a further seven international games to be played before the end of 2020, Martinez may not be shy in using his squad to the full, hoping to dispel the myth that they are heavily reliant on Romelu Lukaku.

From Iceland's perspective, they make the trip to Brussels looking to respond to the disappointment of losing out to England in unfortunate circumstances on Saturday.

Despite having a man advantage for the majority of the final quarter, Iceland failed to make a dent in the Three Lions in open play, while also missing out on an equaliser through Birkir Bjarnason's wayward penalty.

Having repelled an attack-minded England side until their 90th-minute spot kick, boss Erik Hamren could not hide his frustration at missing out on a major coup in their international history, as well as squandering the chance to extend their unbeaten record to six matches.

Ahead of their Euro 2020 playoff with Romania, Hamren must now decide whether he wants to push his tired team to the limit for the second time in three days, or blood some of his inexperienced crop at a time when the squad are missing several of their stars.

Belgium Nations League form: W
Belgium form (all competitions): WWWWWW

Iceland Nations League form: L
Iceland form (all competitions): WDWWWL

Team News

Eden Hazard warms up for Real Madrid on July 10, 2020 © Reuters

While Martinez may opt to retain several of the players who began on Saturday, do not be surprised if there are numerous changes to the Belgium starting lineup.

Thomas Meunier, Leander Dendoncker, Dennis Praet and Eden Hazard will all expect to feature, while Leandro Trossard, Yari Verschaeren and Jeremy Doku are all pushing for their first starts in the senior ranks.

Toby Alderweireld could drop down to the substitutes' bench due to Tottenham Hotspur's upcoming commitments, while Timothy Castagne may replace Thorgan Hazard at left wing-back to accommodate Meunier's return on the opposite flank.

Iceland will be forced into at least one change after defender Sverrir Ingason was sent off against England.

Holmar Orn Eyjolfsson could get the nod in his place, with Arnor Sigurdsson also in line to be handed a recall having already being brought up to speed through his appearances at CSKA Moscow.

Belgium possible starting lineup:
Mignolet; Dendoncker, Denayer, Vertonghen; Meunier, Tielemans, Praet, Castagne; E.Hazard, Lukaku, Trossard

Iceland possible starting lineup:
Halldorsson; Hermannsson, Arnason, Eyjolfsson, Magnusson; Sigurdsson, Bjarnason, Palsson, Traustason; Gudmundsson, Bodvarsson

SM words green background

We say: Belgium 4-0 Iceland

Despite the possibility of changes being made by Belgium, we still expect one-way traffic in Brussels. Iceland put everything into Saturday's game, both physically and mentally, and it could be difficult for the underdogs to lift themselves with a 72-hour turnaround.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 78.34%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 7.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.24%) and 1-0 (10.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (2.67%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.