Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leuven win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Standard Liege had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leuven win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Standard Liege win was 0-1 (8.92%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.