Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 53.8%. A win for Club Brugge had a probability of 23.65% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.93%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Club Brugge win was 1-2 (6.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genk would win this match.