Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charleroi win with a probability of 37.62%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 35.38% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charleroi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Union SG win was 0-1 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.