Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leuven win with a probability of 48.17%. A win for Charleroi had a probability of 27.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leuven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.35%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Charleroi win was 1-2 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leuven would win this match.