Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 56.3%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Charleroi had a probability of 21.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for a Charleroi win it was 1-2 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genk would win this match.