Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charleroi win with a probability of 44.24%. A win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 29.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charleroi win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Sint-Truiden win was 0-1 (8.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Charleroi in this match.