Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torpedo-BelAZ win with a probability of 56.09%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Naftan had a probability of 20.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torpedo-BelAZ win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%), while for a Naftan win it was 0-1 (6.54%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Torpedo-BelAZ would win this match.