Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 46.27%. A win for Vitebsk had a probability of 27.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Vitebsk win was 0-1 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.