Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 45.15%. A win for Torpedo-BelAZ had a probability of 27.46% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest Torpedo-BelAZ win was 0-1 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Neman in this match.