Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for Torpedo-BelAZ had a probability of 32.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Torpedo-BelAZ win was 0-1 (9.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.