Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtyor Soligorsk win with a probability of 58.72%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 17.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtyor Soligorsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.97%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtyor Soligorsk would win this match.