Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtyor Soligorsk win with a probability of 67.66%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Naftan had a probability of 12.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtyor Soligorsk win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.46%) and 1-2 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for a Naftan win it was 1-0 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.