Athletico Paranaense will look to overturn a one-goal deficit on Thursday, when they welcome LDU Quito to Brazil in the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana quarter-final tie.
The Ecuadorian outfit come in with a 1-0 aggregate lead but will have to fight hard to defend that on their travels.
Match preview
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Athletico Paranaense cruised through the group stage of the Copa Sudamericana with relative ease, topping Group D with 15 points from six games as they hit eight goals and only conceded once.
After also enjoying a strong start to the domestic campaign, Antonio Oliveira's side were on a high following a 1-0 away win over America de Cali in the first leg of their round-of-16 tie, with Nikao converting a penalty, before a Vitinho brace and goals from Nikao and Fernando Canesin fired them to a 4-1 home win and a 5-1 aggregate victory.
However, their form has since taken a major dip, and El Paranaense fell short in the first leg of the quarter-finals, with a late Djorkaeff Reasco finish giving LDU Quito a one-goal advantage heading into the second leg in Brazil.
That extended a poor run of form for Oliveira's men, and following a 1-0 defeat to Ceara last time out, they have now lost four of their last five games, having also suffered three straight league defeats.
They will be desperate to finally put that form right, and a second leg on home turf may present a good opportunity to turn the tides on the visiting outfit.
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Meanwhile, LDU Quito will arrive with the aim of finishing the job after an important home victory.
On the contrary to their opponents, Thursday's visitors did not pass through the group stage of the Copa Sudamericana, instead dropping into the knockout stage after finishing in third spot in their Copa Libertadores group.
Having finished just two points behind Velez Sarsfield in second place, a spot that allows progression to the final 16, Los Albos were left to rue the back-to-back defeats that saw them limited to eight points, but they did not miss out on continental football completely, instead dropping into the Copa Sudamericana round of 16 with a tie against Gremio.
Their chances looked bleak after a 1-0 defeat on home turf, but Los Blancos came back on their travels, as a Jordy Alcivar brace saw them advance on away goals after a 2-1 win on the night.
That meant they progressed to the final eight, and head into Thursday's game with a slender lead, although they will be haunted by their last league outing, as they threw away a two-goal lead before half time and eventually managed to salvage a point thanks to a late equaliser to see the game finish 3-3.
A slightly underwhelming start to the domestic campaign should provide even more encouragement for the Ecuadorian outfit as they look to go all the way in South America's secondary competition.
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Team News
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Athletico Paranaense will be without Matheus Babi and Lucas Halter, as the pair continue spells on the sidelines through injury.
However, they will welcome Thiago Heleno and Richard back into the squad after they served league suspensions last time out.
Renato Kayzer has struggled in front of goal this season, only hitting the net once in 13 appearances in the Brazilian top flight so far, and Oliveira could opt to replace him with David Terans on Thursday, or deploy both given their need for goals.
LDU Quito forward Djorkaeff Reasco will be hopeful of earning a starting spot on Thursday, after his late goal off the bench gave them an advantage coming into the second leg.
He further boosted his claim with a goal in the recent 3-3 league draw, while winger Jose Quinteros should have also sealed his place for Thursday with a brace in that game.
Further back, Franklin Guerra and Luis Caicedo should continue to partner up at the heart of the defensive line, as they go in search of another clean sheet.
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Krepski; Henrique, Ivaldo, Vichiatto; Marcinho, Richard, Christian, Abner; Nikao; Terans, Kayzer
LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Gabbarini; Perlaza, Caicedo, Guerra, Cruz; Piovi, Alcivar; Quinteros, Angulo, Zunino; Reasco
We say: Athletico Paranaense 1-1 LDU Quito (LDU Quito win 2-1 on aggregate)
Athletico Paranaense do possess the ability to overturn the deficit with a dominant win on Thursday, but given their poor run of form recently, we see the falling just short and the visitors scraping through.
We expect the Brazilian side to find the net, but they have looked uncharacteristically shaky at the back in the last few weeks and could be vulnerable to LDU Quito's dangerous front line.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 51.04%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for LDU Quito had a probability of 23.79%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a LDU Quito win it was 0-1 (7.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.
