Atletico Goianiense will play host to Santos on Saturday, in a clash between sides battling to climb further from the bottom four of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table.
After an upturn in form, the visitors have risen to 13th spot, but they sit just one point ahead of the hosts, who have gone the opposite way and now sit 16th after three straight defeats.
Match preview
© Reuters
After a strong start to the season, Atletico Goianiense now find themselves in danger of relegation, having suffered a major dip in form in the second half of the campaign.
The Dragao have collected just 15 points from the last 15 league outings, after earning 22 from the first 15 games of the season, although they did look to have picked up recently with consecutive league wins over Gremio and Atletico Mineiro.
They have been unable to reverse their fortunes in the long term though, and Atletico GO now head into Saturday on the back of three straight defeats.
Under the temporary charge of Eduardo Souza, they were first beaten 2-0 by Sport Recife and Flamengo, before Raphael Veiga, Rony, Gustavo Scarpa and Breno Lopes all got on the scoresheet in a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Palmeiras last time out.
Such a run has seen the Dragao drop uncomfortably close to the relegation zone, and they are now just four points ahead of the bottom four with eight league games to play, making it vital that they bounce back quickly in their bid to remain in the top flight.
© Reuters
They meet a Santos side who have already given their survival hopes a major boost in recent weeks, having previously sat just above the bottom four.
After a poor run saw them win just one of 15 games, the Peixe have now won three of their last four league matches, firstly defeating Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense consecutively.
While their rebound was halted by a 2-0 defeat to Palmeiras, Fabio Carille's men bounced back to winning ways on Wednesday, when they met high-flying Bragantino.
Marinho put his side ahead on the half-hour mark, and Carlos Sanchez ensured they took all three points as he converted an injury-time penalty.
Although they have vastly improved their situation in the last month, Santos remain just five points above the relegation zone, and they will know they have more work to do to confirm their safety before they can focus on a top-12 finish and earning continental qualification.
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Having suffered three straight defeats, Atletico Goianiense may look to make some changes to their side, with the likes of Maranhao at risk of dropping out.
He may be replaced by Marlon Freitas, given the lack of protection given to the defensive unit in recent games.
Ze Roberto should continue to lead the line, having hit five league goals so far this term.
Despite the quick turnaround, Santos may look to deploy an unchanged starting XI from the recent 2-0 victory over Bragantino.
Marinho will continue to lead the line, after he hit his fifth goal of the season in that win, and he should again be supported by Diego Tardelli and Gabriel Pirani.
Carille has developed a system of three centre-backs, accommodating the additional wide threat of the likes of Lucas Braga and Marcos Guilherme in wing-back roles.
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Fernando; Dudu, Eder, Wanderson, Carius; Freitas, Baralhas; Janderson, Paulo, Montenegro; Roberto
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Kaiky, Felipe, Boza; Guilherme, Zanocelo, Jonatan, Braga; Pirani, Marinho, Tardelli
We say: Atletico Goianiense 0-2 Santos
Given the contrasting form of the two sides, we expect Santos to leave with all three points on Saturday.
The visitors have gained momentum in recent outings, while their hosts have gone the opposite way, and we see those trends continuing with an away victory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Goianiense win with a probability of 40.06%. A win for Santos had a probability of 31.4% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Goianiense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Santos win was 0-1 (10.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
