In their first appearance in the round of 16 of the Copa Sudamericana since 2012, Atletico Goianiense are on the brink of elimination as they host Olimpia on Thursday at Estadio do Governo do Estado de Goias.
Dragao were shut out for the first time in the 2022 tournament last week, dropping a 2-0 decision to the Paraguayans, extending their winless run away from home to three straight matches in all competitions.
Match preview
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Not unlike their domestic campaign, Goianiense are in a fight to stay alive at the Copa Sudamericana after failing to generate much offensively last Thursday, despite having five shots on target.
Their manager, Jorginho, has struggled to solve their problems in the attacking third lately, with his team tallying a goal or fewer in four straight matches in all competitions, while going winless over that stretch.
Even though they will have their work cut out to reverse their current two-goal deficit, Atletico can look to their form in the group stage as motivation that this deficit is far from impossible to overturn.
They have a 100% record at home in this competition, outscoring their opponents 8-2 in those three games while also posting two clean sheets.
Since the beginning of June, we have seen an inconsistent side in virtually every game, failing to win consecutive fixtures and narrowly above the relegation zone in the Brazilian top-flight, leading Goias by a single point.
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Following a disappointing end to their Copa Libertadores campaign, where Olimpia missed the knockout stage by a single goal, they managed to pick themselves up and put forth an impressive effort in the opening leg of this tie.
In one game, the Paraguayans have tallied more goals than they had in their four previous round of 16 appearances at this competition.
As with most teams in the Primera Division of Paraguay, Olimpia are defined by their defending, conceding a goal or fewer in seven consecutive matches in all competitions and posting back-to-back shutouts.
The appointment of Julio Cesar Caceres has proven to be an inspiring choice, as the 42-year-old has done a splendid job of disciplining his players to hold their positions while winning their share of loose balls in the middle of the field.
As structurally sound as they are, El Decano are still a potent side in the attacking third, scoring the second-most goals to this point of their domestic campaign (41).
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Team News
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Goianiense midfielders Shaylon and Jorge de Moura Xavier, better known as Jorginho, though no relation to his coach, each tallied twice in the group phase of this competition, while their leading goalscorer Wellington Rato (four) has one goal so far in the Sudamericana.
Ronaldo took over for Luan Polli in goal at the halfway point of this competition, conceding one or fewer times in each of his last two games in the group stage, while Marlon Freitas has been their leading provider in the midfield during the domestic season with three assists.
Atletico midfielder Jorginho is expected to be out until late July because of a thigh injury, while Dudu could be available after missing some time with a sore ankle.
We saw three newcomers in their opening lineup this past weekend when they lost 2-1 to Sao Paulo as Edson, Airton and Shaylon replaced Wanderson, Luiz Fernando and Jorginho.
Derlis Gonzalez and Alejandro Silva both found the mark in the opening leg of this tie as Gaston Olveira made five stops to collect a clean sheet.
Walter Gonzalez, Saul Salcedo, Hugo Quintana and Fernando Cardozo were the only players to tally in the group stage of the Copa Libertadores, where they failed to score on two occasions.
Guillermo Paiva has eight goals to this point of the domestic campaign, putting him in a tie for fourth in the league, while Walter Gonzalez and Alejandro Silva are right behind him with seven each in league play.
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Ronaldo; Jefferson, Ramon, Wanderson, Hayner; Baralhas, Freitas; Shaylon, Airton, Rato; Churin
Olimpia possible starting lineup:
Olveira; Otalvaro, Zarate, Salcedo, Torres; Silva, Quintana, Gomez, Cardozo; D. Gonzalez, W. Gonzalez
We say: Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Olimpia
A lack of scoring depth has plagued Goianiense throughout the season, which is why they are in their current predicament and it could be a struggle for them again this week.
It is hard to envision Dragao scoring multiple goals against a side as well-drilled and organised as Olimpia, and we therefore expect the Paraguayans to advance.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
