Atletico Goianiense have a chance to put a small dent in the championship aspirations of Atletico Mineiro when the team from Goiania welcome the league leaders to Atletico Clube Goianiense Stadium on Sunday in match number 26 for both sides in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A.
Mineiro increased their lead over Flamengo to 11 points thanks to a 3-1 victory over Santos earlier this week, while Dragao are winless and goalless in three straight league fixtures.
Match preview
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In their second consecutive season in the Brazilian top flight since earning promotion in 2019, Goianiense have shown that they belong in Serie A, currently in 10th place, which is three spots above where they finished the 2020 campaign.
Even though they appear to be well-positioned with 10 teams behind them at the moment, the gap between themselves and Bahia, who are currently in the final relegation spot, is not that big, with Dragao holding a slim four-point advantage on them for the moment.
Sunday is a chance for Eduardo Souza and his players to put some distance between themselves and those chasing them in the table, but it is also an opportunity to make a statement that they can stick with the big clubs in Brazil.
The 41-year-old interim manager has struggled since taking over from Eduardo Barroca at the start of the month, winning his first match in charge, 3-0 over Fortaleza, before losing their scoring touch in their last three games.
Goianiense have played six matches in Serie A this year against teams currently in the top four, and they have only four points to show for it, having been shut out in four of those encounters.
It has been quite some time since they have earned a victory against Mineiro, when a second-half strike from Vitor Junior gave them a 1-0 win at home against Galo in 2011.
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An elimination to Palmeiras in the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores has not deterred the confidence of Cuca and his team, who have built up a nice cushion atop the Brasileiro table.
Currently unbeaten in their last 17 matches in all competitions, they seem to realize the importance of increasing their current advantage, seeing as second-place Flamengo have two games in hand on them, meaning that if they win those matches, the Mineiro lead could be down to five points instead of 11.
On Wednesday, Galo reacted well after falling behind 1-0 to Santos, scoring three in the final 20 plus minutes, and taking control of a game that started slowly for them.
Even though they have not lost a competitive fixture since dropping a 2-1 decision to Bahia in their Copa do Brasil tie, but advancing on aggregate, Mineiro have not been as explosive in the final third on the road as they have been at home.
They have drawn four of their last five away matches in all competitions and were kept off the scoresheet in two of those encounters.
It will be a busy end to the month for this club, who will host Fortaleza in the first leg of the Copa do Brasil semi-finals on Wednesday, the second of five games remaining in October for them with no more than four days rest in between those matches.
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Team News
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Marlon Freitas scored the only goal for Goianiense in their 4-1 defeat to Mineiro earlier this year, and he has not found the back of the net since then, while their leading goalscorer Ze Roberto is without a goal in his last six matches after getting the equaliser against Corinthians to begin the month of September.
Against Bragantino on Tuesday, one change was made to the Dragao starting 11 as Arnaldo replaced Dudu in defence.
Goalkeeper Fernando Miguel is second in the league in clean sheets with 11, putting him one back of Everson from Mineiro.
Nacho Fernandez helped bring Galo back on Wednesday, scoring a brace, including the equaliser and assisting on the winning goal from Nathan Silva, as the Argentine winger is second in goals and assists for the team behind Hulk.
Fernandez had a big game the last time his side faced Goianiense, as he and his countryman Matias Zaracho had braces in their victory, with Hulk collecting two assists.
Mariano replaced Guga in the starting 11 on Wednesday, while Diego Costa was the lone striker upfront and Tche Tche made his fifth consecutive appearance off the substitutes bench.
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Natanael, Eder, Wanderson, Arnaldo; Baralhas, Barbosa; Lucao, Paulo, Janderson; Ze Roberto
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Guga, Silva, Rever, Dodo; Jair, Allan; Fernandez, Calebe, Keno; Hulk
We say: Atletico Goianiense 1-2 Atletico Mineiro
Mineiro have not lost a competitive match since early August, mainly due to some brilliant individual performances which have earned them points, and even though they are not as sharp in the final third away from home, the quality and depth of this team all over the field is evident and should be enough to give them a sixth successive victory over Goianiense.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 50.53%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Atletico Goianiense had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.34%) and 1-2 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for an Atletico Goianiense win it was 1-0 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
