Monaco head into their Group B fixture with Real Sociedad on Thursday evening knowing that victory will secure their place in the Europa League knockout stages.
While Sociedad are yet to lose any of their four group fixtures, defeat on Thursday may leave them requiring all three points on matchday six.
Match preview
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While his Monaco side sit all the way down in eighth position in Ligue 1, head coach Nico Kovac will never truly feel settled in his role at Stade Louis II.
Monaco are winless in their last three league games, Kovac's side fighting back from two goals down against Lille at the weekend to add another point to their collection.
Nevertheless, the Monegasques have fared much better on the continent, putting together a four-match unbeaten streak and collecting eight points in the process.
Despite the top three being separated by just three points, Monaco will book their spot in the knockout stages if they can get the better of the La Liga highflyers.
Kovac will hope that Wissam Ben Yedder can build on his goal against Lille with the Frenchman having netted just three times since the beginning of October.
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Sociedad head into this contest having lost top spot in Spain's top flight courtesy of a goalless draw against Valencia.
Nevertheless, Imanol Alguacil's side managed to extend their unbeaten run in all competitions to 17 games, a run which has featured nine wins and eight draws.
Goals remain an issue for Los Txuri-Urdin, but they have conceded just four times during their last eight matches, two of which came at Atletico Madrid.
Alguacil will feel that Sociedad still have at least one more extra gear, and they may need to show that to ensure that their Europa League fate remains in their own hands heading into matchday six.
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Team News
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With Krepin Diatta likely missing out for Monaco through injury, Gelson Martins is in line to be handed an opportunity on one of the flanks.
Ben Yedder is yet to make a start in this competition but could replace Myron Boadu, while Ismail Jakobs is another player who may be given a recall.
Benoit Badiashile and Cesc Fabregas are among the players who are sidelined for this contest.
Having come through 30 minutes against Valencia unscathed, Mikel Oyarzabal could make his first Sociedad start in almost two months.
Martin Zubimendi may be restored to the centre of midfield, but Alexander Isak could keep his spot in attack ahead of Alexander Sorloth.
Monaco possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Aguilar, Maripan, Disasi, Henrique; Martins, Tchouameni, Fofana, Diop; Volland, Ben Yedder
Real Sociedad possible starting lineup:
Remiro; Zaldua, Elustondo, Le Normand, Munoz; Merino, Zubimendi; Portu, Silva, Oyarzabal; Isak
We say: Monaco 1-1 Real Sociedad
With Graz still to come on matchday six, Kovac may not risk a defeat in search of all three points. With Sociedad potentially adopting the same mindset, do not be surprised to see this contest end in a low-scoring draw.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 36.83%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 36.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
