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Arsenal logo
Premier League | Gameweek 9
Oct 22, 2021 at 8pm UK
Emirates Stadium
Aston Villa logo

Arsenal
3 - 1
Aston Villa

Partey (23'), Aubameyang (45+6'), Smith Rowe (56')
Sambi Lokonga (45+1'), Aubameyang (66')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Ramsey (82')
Watkins (2'), Mings (27'), McGinn (32'), Targett (60'), Luiz (84')

Preview: Arsenal vs. Aston Villa - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Premier League clash between Arsenal and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Arsenal will aim to extend their unbeaten Premier League run to six matches when they welcome Aston Villa to the Emirates Stadium on Friday night.

The Gunners left it late to rescue a point against Crystal Palace on Monday night, while Villa were stunned by a late Wolverhampton Wanderers comeback in the West Midlands derby.


Match preview

Arsenal's Alexandre Lacazette celebrates scoring their second goal on October 18, 2021© Reuters

Patrick Vieira's return to North London was so nearly a joyous affair for the Invincibles captain on Monday, as his Crystal Palace side dominated proceedings at the Emirates and struck through Christian Benteke and Odsonne Edouard after Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's opener.

However, Alexandre Lacazette - who was Arsenal's brightest player in his 25-minute cameo - was on hand to smash home the equaliser with virtually the last kick of the game in a 2-2 draw, with Mikel Arteta's blushes being spared by the soon-to-be free agent.

While the Gunners have now gone unbeaten in five Premier League games and six across all competitions, the same old questions were asked once again following Monday's stalemate, which has left Arteta's side 12th in the rankings after eight matches.

Thierry Henry recently questioned whether his former club were heading in the right direction under Arteta, and the 228-goal striker's comments appear to have been justified, especially with Lacazette - restricted to substitute outings so far this season and seemingly set to leave in 2022 - providing the bright spark in the second period against Palace.

Arsenal have lost just one of their last six Premier League games at the Emirates, though - taking seven points from the last nine on offer at home - but they have suffered back-to-back defeats in their two most recent Friday fixtures without scoring a single goal.

Aston Villa manager Dean Smith on October 16, 2021© Reuters

A drab first half at Villa Park soon paled into insignificance during an explosive second 45 minutes between Dean Smith's side and Wolverhampton Wanderers, as Danny Ings and John McGinn's strikes seemed set to propel the hosts to a critical success.

However, Romain Saiss, Conor Coady and Ruben Neves's deflected free-kick - all in the final 10 minutes - saw Bruno Lage's side complete a remarkable turnaround at Villa Park to hand this week's visitors their second successive defeat in the Premier League.

The joy of thrashing Everton and getting one over Manchester United has since dissipated for Villa, who find themselves one point and one place below Arsenal in the rankings ahead of Friday's encounter after winning just two of their last six in the competition.

Smith's side have also lost three of their four top-flight away matches since the season kicked off and are yet to produce the results that their significant summer of spending may have promised, but Arsenal fans will need no reminding what happened the last time that Villa paid a visit to the Emirates.

Indeed, an Ollie Watkins-inspired Villa stormed to a 3-0 win in the capital back in November 2020, while a 1-0 triumph at Villa Park in February also represented their third win and clean sheet on the bounce against Arsenal after a previous run of seven consecutive defeats.

Arsenal Premier League form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D

Arsenal form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D

Aston Villa Premier League form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L

Aston Villa form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L



Team News

Arsenal's Bukayo Saka receives medical attention after sustaining an injury on October 18, 2021© Reuters

Arsenal continue to cope without Granit Xhaka for the next couple of months, while Bukayo Saka was taken off at half time against Palace after taking a nasty kick to the back of the leg from James McArthur, who was controversially only punished with a yellow card.

Saka was "very sore" after the game, Arteta conceded, so a spot has opened up for Lacazette to earn a deserved start this weekend, with Aubameyang potentially shifting out to the left while Nicolas Pepe continues on the right.

Thomas Partey, Martin Odegaard and Emile Smith Rowe could all hold their places in midfield if that is the case, with Albert Sambi Lokonga on the bench following his mistake for Palace's second after Partey lost the ball for Benteke's first on Monday.

Villa duo Emiliano Martinez and Douglas Luiz both made the first XI against Wolves despite returning late from South America, while Matty Cash was forced off with a dead leg but should be fine for the Emirates trip.

Doubts persist over attacking duo Leon Bailey and Bertrand Traore, though, while Morgan Sanson has returned to fitness to provide another option in midfield for Smith.

Villa have experienced plenty of joy with a four-man defence against Arsenal in the past and may be tempted to revert to that setup here, although Smith will be reluctant to break up the Ings-Watkins partnership up top.

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Tomiyasu, White, Gabriel, Tierney; Odegaard, Partey, Smith Rowe; Pepe, Lacazette, Aubameyang

Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Konsa, Mings, Hause; Cash, Luiz, Sanson, McGinn, Targett; Watkins, Ings


SM words green background

We say: Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa

Many have questioned whether Arsenal have a clear game plan under Arteta, as Gooners did not see anything of the kind against Palace, while the potential absence of Saka will be a huge blow.

Villa are hardly in the best form either but will certainly take confidence from their three successive triumphs in this fixture, and we think the spoils will be shared in North London once again.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 55.99%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 20.22%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (6.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Arsenal vs Aston Villa

Arsenal
59.0%
Draw
24.0%
Aston Villa
17.1%
563
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Arsenal's Bukayo Saka receives medical attention after sustaining an injury on October 18, 2021
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