Two clubs with wildly contrasting recent fortunes meet in the Bundesliga on Saturday as toiling Arminia Bielefeld host buoyant Bayer Leverkusen at the SchucoArena.
Arminia are on the back of five consecutive league defeats - conceding 14 goals in the process - while Peter Bosz's promising Leverkusen side have been on a spectacular run of goalscoring form.
Match preview
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Having put six past Nice and three past Augsburg last month, confident Leverkusen went on to register four goals in each of their three fixtures before the international break.
Wins over Freiburg, Hapoel Be'er-Sheva and - most impressively - fellow top-four challengers Borussia Monchengladbach while freely racking up 12 goals have left the Rhine side fourth in the Bundesliga table ahead of this eminently winnable encounter in Bielefeld.
Integral to their recent success has been the form of Argentina striker Lucas Alario, who has finally begun to thrive after a stop-start career in Germany since his arrival three years ago.
After seeing both Kai Havertz and Kevin Volland - with 22 league goals between them last season - depart in the summer, Leverkusen would have been concerned about whether they could tap such a regular source of goals again this term. However, Alario - aided by teen sensation Florian Wirtz and in-demand Jamaica winger Leon Bailey - has established himself as Die Werkself's new scoring hero.
The 28-year-old striker has notched seven goals already in the Bundesliga, largely courtesy of bagging braces in each of his last three outings - the first Leverkusen player ever to do so. Only Bayern Munich's goalscorer extraordinaire Robert Lewandowski has found the net more often so far this term.
By contrast, goal-shy Arminia - runaway winners of the 2.Bundesliga last season - currently sit just above the relegation playoff zone in 15th place, having only had fewer points in the top flight after their first six games back in 1996-97, when their total then was just three.
Their seventh league assignment, just before the international break, was a shuddering 5-0 defeat at Union Berlin - when they were a goal down within four minutes and three behind at half time.
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Manager Uwe Neuhaus has seen his side struggle for goals this campaign after netting only four times so far - the fewest in the top flight - and they registered just a single shot on target in Berlin.
Stalwart Fabian Klos, who has been with Arminia since the bleak days of their stint in 3.Liga, is yet to score at this level and, having been the club's top goalscorer for eight of the last nine seasons in the lower divisions, the 32-year-old striker will be increasingly desperate to net his first Bundesliga goal.
One rare bright spark for Neuhaus' side has been the swift adaptation of Japan forward Ritsu Doan - on loan from PSV Eindhoven - who has already established himself as one of the first names on the Arminia team sheet.
Doan can line up on either flank, though played the opening three games in a central attacking midfield role. The 22-year-old was particularly impressive in his side's defeat to Bayern, when he deservedly opened his Bundesliga goalscoring account.
There must be much more to come from Doan and Klos, as Die Blauen fight to avoid an immediate return to the second tier. Saturday's relentless opposition are unlikely to afford Arminia much chance of a win, but their ultra-attacking style can often leave the back door open for opponents to exploit.
Arminia Bielefeld Bundesliga form: WLLLLL
Arminia Bielefeld form (all competitions): LDLLLL
Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga form: DDWWWW
Bayer Leverkusen form (all competitions): WWLWWW
Team News
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Peter Bosz has several selection calls to make, as most of his players returned from international duty unscathed and there are few absences for him to contend with.
One casualty from the break is midfielder Exequiel Palacios, who will be out until the new year after picking up a back injury with Argentina, while young talent Paulinho remains sidelined and Chilean midfielder Charles Aranguiz is unlikely to feature due to an ongoing Achilles problem.
Long-serving Brazilian defender Wendell got the nod at left-back last time out, ahead of first choice Daley Sinkgraven, but the Dutchman is expected to be restored to the back four on Saturday.
Arminia boss Uwe Neuhaus has the luxury of a fully fit squad to pick from, so will think long and hard about shuffling his pack. He is likely to select a 4-3-2-1 setup with club captain Fabian Klos at its apex.
Joan Simun Edmundsson - the first Faroese player to appear and score in German professional football - is one of the few Arminia men to have scored this season and will vie with Cebio Soukou for a spot in support of Klos.
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Brunner, Pieper, Van der Hoorn, Lucoqui; Prietl, Hartel, Kunze; Doan, Soukou; Klos
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; L.Bender, S.Bender, Tapsoba, Sinkgraven; Wirtz, Baumgartlinger, Amiri; Bailey, Alario, Diaby
We say: Arminia Bielefeld 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen
There is no reason to suspect that either side will experience a sharp change in fortune post-international hiatus, as Leverkusen can continue to score at will, while Arminia still struggle to trouble the scorers.
The visitors' unremitting commitment to attack could allow the hapless home side a few rare forays on the counter, but the clinical nature of those such as Alario, Bailey and teen starlet Wirtz should be more than enough to seal another Bundesliga victory.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:curl
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 63.04%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 16.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.94%) and 0-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.56%), while for an Arminia Bielefeld win it was 2-1 (4.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
