Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 60.7%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Barracas Central had a probability of 14.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.88%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.21%), while for a Barracas Central win it was 0-1 (6.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union would win this match.