Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 52.2%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 21.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.