Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 44.57%. A win for Union had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Union win was 0-1 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Defensa y Justicia in this match.