Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 65.02%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Sirius had a probability of 15.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.88%) and 0-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.08%), while for a Sirius win it was 2-1 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.