Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 62%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for IFK Norrkoping had a probability of 16.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.84%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for a IFK Norrkoping win it was 0-1 (5.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.