Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Elfsborg win with a probability of 42.97%. A win for Halmstads BK had a probability of 30.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Elfsborg win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Halmstads BK win was 1-0 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Elfsborg would win this match.