Following an enthralling 2-2 draw in the first leg of their Champions League first qualifying round tie, Alashkert FC and Connah's Quay Nomads renew hostilities in Wednesday's second leg in the Armenian capital city of Yerevan.
After 145 supporters turned out in Aberystwyth for the first leg, the two sides are now vying for the chance to meet Sheriff Tiraspol or Teuta in the next stage.
Match preview
After Craig Curran took all of 19 minutes to head home and break the deadlock for Welsh giants Connah's Quay Nomads in the first leg, Alashkert debutant David Khurtsidze took it upon himself to lead a one-man fightback for his new club.
The 28-year-old's equaliser came after Connah's Quay had been in the lead for no longer than two minutes, and he would proceed to put Alashkert in the ascendancy on the stroke of half time before 39-year-old defender George Horan rescued a draw for the hosts.
Last week's first leg in Aberystwyth saw Alashkert return to competitive action for the first time in six weeks since wrapping up the Armenian top-flight title - their first since 2018 - and new head coach Aleksandr Grigoryan's unbeaten start is still intact.
The 54-year-old has overseen three victories and one draw from his first four games in charge of the Yellows, who have never advanced past the second round of Champions League qualifying, and their only two wins in the elite tournament to date have both come against Andorran minnows Santa Coloma in two separate campaigns.
After sealing back-to-back Cymru Premier League titles with a dramatic 2-0 final-day win over Pen-y-Bont, Connah's Quay also took to the field for the first time since May last week, and one cannot knock Andy Morrison's side for daring to dream.
The former Manchester City defender has seen it all during his five-and-a-half year stint on Deeside, but one thing he is yet to witness is Connah's Quay advancing past the first qualifying round of the Champions League as the Welsh champions seek to make history.
Their first-ever venture in the Champions League ended in despair last year as Bosnian outfit Sarajevo sent them packing with a 2-0 single-legged win at the first hurdle, but having claimed their first positive result at this level of football, Connah's Quay have every right to feel optimistic.
Morrison's men ended the domestic campaign with six wins from their last seven away matches, and while they only kept a clean sheet in one of those encounters, they notched up a staggering 23 goals at the correct end of the pitch.
- D
- D
Team News
Alashkert are in a strong position fitness-wise having had six weeks to prepare for this European battle, and Grigoryan's side reported no fresh concerns from their midweek trip to Wales.
The Armenian coach's decision to field a back five did not pay dividends as his defence was breached twice on the day, but he should retain faith in the experienced heads who featured from the first whistle.
Connah's Quay defender Danny Holmes had to be stretchered off with a knee ligament injury in the first leg, so Tom Moore could take his compatriot's place in the back three.
Sameron Dool is a long-term absentee as he battles back from a cruciate ligament problem, while Kris Owens and Aaron Edwards are pushing for starts after coming off the bench in the first leg.
Courtesy of scoring his side's second goal on the day, Horan - aged 39 years and 147 days - wrote his name in the history books by becoming the oldest goalscorer in the Champions League, surpassing Francesco Totti when he netted versus CSKA Moscow at the age of 38.
Alashkert FC possible starting lineup:
Cancarevic; Cameta, Voskanyan, Kadio, Boljevic, James; Khurtsidze, Hovsepyan, Grigoryan, Davidyan; Embalo
Connah's Quay Nomads possible starting lineup:
Byrne; Moore, Horan, Disney; Morris, Harrison, Owen, Poole; Mullan, Wilde, Curran
We say: Alashkert FC 1-0 Connah's Quay Nomads (3-2 on aggregate)
Alashkert are still riding the wave of that favourable new manager bounce, but they cannot rely on their two away goals to propel them into the next round following UEFA's rule change.
Connah's Quay have proven themselves as a true goalscoring outfit on the road, but we think this will just be a step too far for them as Alashkert advance on familiar territory.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alashkert FC win with a probability of 40.55%. A win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 33.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alashkert FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%).
