Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morocco win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Gabon had a probability of 31.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morocco win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (7.6%). The likeliest Gabon win was 1-0 (10.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.