AFC Wimbledon will welcome fellow relegation candidates Morecambe to the Cherry Red Records Stadium for their League One battle on Saturday afternoon.
A seven-goal thriller was played out between these two sides in September's reverse fixture, which saw Wimbledon come out on top with a dramatic 94th-minute winner from Ayoub Assal.
Match preview
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After suffering a disappointing FA Cup third-round exit at the hands of National League outfit Boreham Wood last weekend, AFC Wimbledon suffered a narrow 1-0 league defeat away to bitter rivals MK Dons on Tuesday.
Matt O'Riley's 29th-minute strike proved to be the winning goal which condemned Mark Robinson's men to their ninth league defeat of the season.
Just two points separate Wimbledon in 20th place from Saturday's opponents Morecambe, who are positioned one place below them in the relegation zone, though the Wombles do have two games in hand.
After four successive games away from home, Wimbledon will be pleased to finally return to the Cherry Red Records Stadium, where they have won three and drawn one of their last four matches across all competitions.
The Wombles have had mixed results at home against Morecambe over the years, winning and losing two games each as well as playing out one draw in their five home encounters. Success on Saturday could see Robinson's men climb as high as 16th place if other results were to go their way.
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Morecambe were on course to claim one of the biggest FA Cup third-round upsets of the weekend when they were leading 1-0 heading into the final 20 minutes against Premier League giants Tottenham Hotspur, thanks to Anthony O'Connor's close-range strike midway through the first half.
However, Antonio Conte brought on the superstars to turn the tie on its head as Harry Winks's 74th-minute equaliser was followed by late strikes from Lucas Moura and Harry Kane to end the Shrimps' dreams of a giant-killing.
Nevertheless, Steve Robinson will have been impressed with his side's resilience at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and he is sure to have taken plenty of positives from the game, which he will be hoping they can now replicate in the second half of their League One campaign.
Morecambe's most recent league fixture saw them secure all three points in dramatic fashion, as they came from three goals down at half time to win 4-3 at home against fellow relegation candidates Doncaster Rovers.
Such fighting spirit will be required in their bid to avoid an immediate drop back down to League Two, especially in games against relegation rivals such as Wimbledon, against who they will be seeking revenge this weekend after their defeat in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
With challenging encounters against Wigan Athletic and Wycombe Wanderers to come later this month, securing all three points could be crucial if they are to escape the bottom four.
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Team News
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Wimbledon will be without left-back Nesta Guinness-Walker following his dismissal against MK Dons on Tuesday, so Henry Lawrence is expected to start as a result.
Mark Robinson is unlikely to make too many changes to his starting lineup, though the likes of Ethan Chislett – who scored against Morecambe in September – and Paul Osew will be hoping to force their way into the first XI.
Ollie Palmer is set to start again as the central striker and he could be supported in attack by wingers Assal and Jack Rudoni.
As for Morecambe, Steve Robinson will likely switch back to a 4-3-3 formation, after using a five-at-the-back system against Tottenham.
Defender Jacob Bedeau played for 65 minutes on his Shrimps debut against Spurs, and the Burnley loanee will be in contention to keep his place at centre-back ahead of Ryan Delaney.
Top goalscorer Cole Stockton, who has netted 15 times in League One this season, is expected to lead the line and he could be joined in attack by Jonah Ayunga and Arthur Gnahoua.
AFC Wimbledon possible starting lineup:
Tzanev; Alexander, Nightingale, Heneghan, Lawrence; Woodyard, Hartigan, Assal, McCormick, Rudoni; Palmer
Morecambe possible starting lineup:
Carson; McLaughlin, O'Connor, Bedeau, Leigh; McCalmont, Diagouraga, McLoughlin; Ayunga, Stockton, Gnahoua
We say: AFC Wimbledon 2-2 Morecambe
An entertaining encounter with plenty of goalmouth action is expected on Saturday between two sides who will fancy their chances of securing all three points.
As desperate as Morecambe will be to climb out of the relegation zone and get revenge over Wimbledon, they may have to settle for just a point on this occasion.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 46.24%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 29.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
