A crucial game takes place at the bottom of the Eredivisie table on Thursday, as basement side ADO Den Haag welcome Willem II to the Kyocera Stadium.
The hosts sit at the foot of the table but have kept their survival hopes alive with back-to-back victories, while their opponents sit in 15th spot, one point and one place ahead of FC Emmen in the relegation playoff place and two points above the automatic drop zone with two games left to play.
Match preview
ADO Den Haag have just about managed to keep their survival hopes alive with consecutive victories coming into this game, starting with an impressive win at home to Feyenoord.
The visitors took an early lead through Robert Bozenik, but a Jonas Arweiler goal and an Abdenasser El Khayati brace quickly turned the game on its head, while Nicolai Jorgensen's 70th-minute strike was not enough to salvage a point as Den Haag came out as 3-2 winners.
They then followed that up with a trip to PEC Zwolle, with another victory required to keep them in the fight to avoid the drop.
Ruud Brood's side succeeded in picking up the three points, as Bobby Adekanye netted the only goal of the game in the 12th minute.
While they remain at the bottom of the table, De Residentieclub now sit just three points behind Thursday's opponents in 15th spot, which guarantees automatic safety, meaning a win would see them take a huge step towards avoiding the drop.
Willem II will look to record a crucial victory of their own on Thursday to see them fend off the bottom three going into the final game of the season.
They come into this game on the back of consecutive defeats, most recently falling to a 2-0 loss at home to second-placed PSV Eindhoven.
That means Zeljko Petrovic's side have now lost four of their last five league matches, seeing them fail to escape the battle for survival as a result.
With two games left to play, the Superkruiken find themselves just a single point ahead of Emmen in the relegation playoff place, and two points above the automatic drop zone.
That means a win over ADO Den Haag would not only see them move almost out of reach of the basement side, it could also confirm their survival, depending on other results at the bottom of the table.
Even if the teams around Petrovic's side pick up victories on Thursday, a victory would still be crucial in keeping them out of the bottom three and putting them in pole position to avoid the drop going into the final day of the season.
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Team News
Ruud Brood only made one enforced change to his team last time out, as winger Vicente Besuijen served a one-game suspension, and he could keep a similar side again given their back-to-back victories.
That could see Besuijen return to the front three alongside Jonas Arweiler and Bobby Adekanye.
At the other end of the pitch, the back four of Milan van Ewijk, Gianni Zuiverloon, Shaquille Pinas and Boy Kemper should remain unchanged after their clean sheet last time out.
Striker Vangelis Pavlidis made a return to the Willem II starting lineup last time out, and he should lead the line again on Thursday, having netted nine Eredivisie goals so far this campaign.
Petrovic opted to move to a defensive-minded system of five at the back for the visit of PSV, but he should move back to a more usual lineup with four at the back on Thursday.
The change in system could see exciting 22-year-old Che Nunnely moved back into a winger role, with Kwasi Okyere Wriedt joining Pavlidis in the front two.
Centre-back Sebastian Holmen will return to the side following a suspension last time out, and he is expected to partner up with Sven van Beek at the heart of the defence.
ADO Den Haag possible starting lineup:
Fraisl; Van Ewijk, Zuiverloon, Pinas, Kemper; De Boer, El Khayati, Goossens; Besuijen, Arweiler, Adekanye
Willem II possible starting lineup:
Muric; Owusu, Van Beek, Holmen, Kohn; Nunnely, Saddiki, Llonch, Ndayishimiye; Wriedt, Pavlidis
We say: ADO Den Haag 2-0 Willem II
In a game between two sides who will be absolutely desperate for a win in a crucial game in the race for survival, this encounter could definitely go either way, but we give the edge to the hosts.
Den Haag come into the match with momentum having kept their slim survival hopes alive with back-to-back wins, and we see them rallying to pick up a third straight victory to potentially move out of the bottom two.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 45.9%. A win for ADO Den Haag had a probability of 29.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.26%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest ADO Den Haag win was 1-0 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
