Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 42.8%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 34.19% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.58%) and 0-2 (5.72%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 2-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Hamburger SV in this match.