Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 59.42%. A win for Magdeburg had a probability of 21.09% and a draw had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.17%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Magdeburg win was 1-2 (5.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.