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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 4
Mar 1, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval
Newtown logo

Caernarfon
1 - 0
Newtown

Gosset (37')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Sutton (90+5')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Newtown AFC.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Caernarfon 1-8 New Saints
Friday, February 23 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Newtown AFC

All competitions
Last Game: Newtown 1-5 Bala Town
Saturday, February 24 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 37.62% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.34%) and 0-2 (5.22%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawNewtown AFC
37.62% (0.595 0.59) 23.19% (0.165 0.16) 39.18% (-0.764 -0.76)
Both teams to score 64.59% (-0.60000000000001 -0.6)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.18% (-0.8 -0.8)36.82% (0.794 0.79)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.01% (-0.872 -0.87)58.99% (0.867 0.87)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.01% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)19.99% (0.067 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.83% (-0.114 -0.11)52.17% (0.10899999999999 0.11)
Newtown AFC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.73% (-0.68000000000001 -0.68)19.27% (0.676 0.68)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49% (-1.132 -1.13)51% (1.128 1.13)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 37.62%
    Newtown AFC 39.18%
    Draw 23.19%
Caernarfon TownDrawNewtown AFC
2-1 @ 8.22% (0.11 0.11)
1-0 @ 6.2% (0.225 0.23)
2-0 @ 4.99% (0.172 0.17)
3-1 @ 4.41% (0.051 0.05)
3-2 @ 3.63% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-0 @ 2.68% (0.087 0.09)
4-1 @ 1.78% (0.017 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.46% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.08% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 37.62%
1-1 @ 10.21% (0.16 0.16)
2-2 @ 6.77% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
0-0 @ 3.85% (0.148 0.15)
3-3 @ 1.99% (-0.064 -0.06)
Other @ 0.37%
Total : 23.19%
1-2 @ 8.41% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-1 @ 6.34% (0.111 0.11)
0-2 @ 5.22% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 4.62% (-0.128 -0.13)
2-3 @ 3.72% (-0.112 -0.11)
0-3 @ 2.87% (-0.074 -0.07)
1-4 @ 1.9% (-0.095 -0.1)
2-4 @ 1.53% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-4 @ 1.18% (-0.057 -0.06)
Other @ 3.41%
Total : 39.18%

Head to Head
Oct 7, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 11
Newtown
4-0
Caernarfon
Williams (40', 45+3', 71'), Sears (85')
Evans (51'), Sutton (57'), Cowans (73'), Sears (77'), Mills-Evans (89'), Jones (90+3')

Donohue (90+5')
Aug 18, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 2
Caernarfon
2-1
Newtown
Mooney (40'), Lloyd (90+1')
Clarke (45+4'), Davies (53'), Mooney (60'), Thomas (84')
Davies (82')
Williams (90+10')
Evans (18'), Roberts (68'), Ismail (80'), Boakye (84')
Dec 2, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Caernarfon
2-3
Newtown
O'Rourke (30'), Edwards (62')
Robles (8'), Williams (27'), Rushton (53')
Aug 30, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Newtown
2-1
Caernarfon
Rushton (3'), Williams (23')
Wynne (55')
Williams (49'), Wynne (73')
Oct 23, 2021 5.15pm
Gameweek 10
Newtown
1-0
Caernarfon
Mwandwe (45+2')
Roberts (45'), (88'), Jones (90+5')

Hughes (40'), Edwards (42'), John Williams (58'), Jones (88'), Evans (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
Championship Round
1The New SaintsNew Saints101000117189992
2Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay1033470432759
3Bala TownBala Town103523831751
4Newtown AFCNewtown103254946344
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon102445270-1841
6Cardiff MUCardiff MU1012763102-3936
Relegation Round
1Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont106314637943
2Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest104333940-143
3Barry Town UnitedBarry101633654-1832
4Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth103342757-3027
5Colwyn Bay103253466-3225
6Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd103343672-3622
 
Regular Season
1The New SaintsNew Saints22202077146362
2Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay22152559293047
3Bala TownBala Town2210752520537
4Cardiff MUCardiff MU229762839-1134
5Newtown AFCNewtown2210393531433
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon229494041-131
7Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest227782933-428
8Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont2284102832-425
9Barry Town UnitedBarry2265112741-1423
10Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2243151846-2815
11Colwyn Bay2242162749-2214
12Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd2254131331-1813
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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