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[monks data]
Croatia national football team
European Championship | Round of 16
Jun 28, 2021 at 5pm UK
Telia Parken
Spain national football team

Croatia
3 - 5
Spain

Pedri (20' og.), Orsic (85'), Pasalic (90+2')
Brozovic (73'), Caleta-Car (84')
FT
(aet)
Sarabia (38'), Azpilicueta (57'), Torres (77'), Morata (100'), Oyarzabal (103')

Preview: Croatia vs. Spain - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Monday's European Championship clash between Croatia and Spain, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Spain will be looking to build on their five-star performance in their last match at the European Championship when they take on Croatia in the last-16 stage of Euro 2020 on Monday night.

La Roja finished second in Group E to advance to the knockout round of the competition, while Croatia, who were eliminated at this stage of the 2016 tournament, claimed second position in Group D behind England.


Match preview

Luka Modric celebrates scoring for Croatia against Scotland at Euro 2020 on June 22, 2021© Reuters

Croatia got their Group D campaign off to the worst possible start, as a 1-0 defeat to England on June 13 left the 2018 World Cup finalists playing catch-up in the section, especially as the Czech Republic opened their tournament with a win over Scotland to join England on three points after the first gameweek.

The Blazers were then held to a 1-1 draw by the Czech Republic, which left them in a difficult spot ahead of their clash with Scotland on June 22, but a strong performance from Zlatko Dalic's side saw them claim all three points courtesy of a 3-1 success, with Nikola Vlasic, Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic on the scoresheet.

The victory at Hampden Park actually allowed Croatia to move above the Czech Republic into second position in Group D, which has ultimately seen them handed a difficult last-16 clash with Spain.

Dalic's team, as mentioned, reached the final of the 2018 World Cup, but their record at the European Championship is underwhelming, having failed to progress past the quarter-final stage.

Despite a strong performance against Scotland, it is difficult to imagine the Blazers seriously challenging for the trophy, as they could meet favourites France in the quarter-finals before potentially tackling Belgium, Portugal or Italy in the semi-finals, having been placed in the more difficult side of the draw.

Aymeric Laporte celebrates scoring for Spain against Slovakia at Euro 2020 on June 23, 2021© Reuters

Spain, meanwhile, produced easily their standout performance of Euro 2020 on Wednesday night, as they recorded a 5-0 victory over Slovakia to secure their spot in the round of 16.

La Roja looked to be finishing top of Group E, but Sweden scored late to beat Poland on the same evening, which allowed them to move to the summit and pushed Luis Enrique's side into second.

Spain opened their tournament with a goalless draw against Sweden on June 14 before being held to a 1-1 draw by Poland five days later, as Robert Lewandowski cancelled out an effort from Alvaro Morata, which left the three-time winners facing the possibility of elimination in the group stage.

A five-star display against Slovakia arrived on June 23, though, with Aymeric Laporte, Pablo Sarabia and Ferran Torres on the scoresheet, while two own goals also helped Enrique's team.

La Roja are bidding to win a fourth European Championship, which would make them the most successful team in the history of the tournament. As it stands, they are level on three trophies with Germany, having triumphed in the 1964, 2008 and 2012 editions of the famous competition.

Croatia European Championship form:
  • L
  • D
  • W

Croatia form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W

Spain European Championship form:
  • D
  • D
  • W

Spain form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W



Team News

Spain's Alvaro Morata in action against Sweden at Euro 2020 on June 14, 2021© Reuters

Croatia's XI is expected to have a similar look to the one that started against Scotland last time out, with Modric, Marcelo Brozovic and Mateo Kovacic again lining up as the midfield three in a 4-3-3 formation.

However, Dalic will be unable to call upon Perisic, who has tested positive for coronavirus, which could allow Ante Rebic the chance to feature from the first whistle on Monday night.

Vlasic was brought into the starting side for the clash with Scotland and justified his selection with a goal, meaning that he could retain his spot.

Sime Vrsaljko will be hoping to win back the right-back position from Josip Juranovic, but it could otherwise be an unchanged team aside from Perisic, with Bruno Petkovic likely to keep his spot in the final third.

As for Spain, there is no question that the performance against Slovakia would have pleased Enrique, who is likely to hand another start to Sarabia in an attacking position.

Cesar Azpilicueta could keep out Marcos Llorente to feature at right-back once again, but there might be a change in the back four, with Pau Torres potentially replacing Eric Garcia to start alongside Laporte.

Ferran Torres and Thiago Alcantara are both expected to miss out on positions in the first XI despite impressing off the bench against Slovakia.

Morata's spot in the side continues to be debated, but the 28-year-old, who missed a penalty on Wednesday, seemingly has the full support of his manager and is likely to retain his position in the middle of the front three, while Villarreal's Gerard Moreno could also be given the nod in an attacking area.

Croatia possible starting lineup:
Livakovic; Vrsaljko, Lovren, Vida, Gvardiol; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Vlasic, Petkovic, Rebic

Spain possible starting lineup:
Simon; Azpilicueta, Laporte, Torres, Alba; Pedri, Busquets, Koke; Sarabia, Morata, G Moreno


SM words green background

We say: Croatia 1-2 Spain

Croatia are more than capable of making this a very difficult match for Spain, and we are expecting a close contest. Aside from the Scotland clash, though, Croatia, who will be missing one of their key players, have struggled to perform this summer, and Spain should have just enough to advance to the quarter-finals of the competition.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 45.26%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 28.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.04%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-0 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%).


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Data Failed

How you voted: Croatia vs Spain

Croatia
43.6%
Draw
19.9%
Spain
36.5%
463
Collect / Create New Data
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Croatia's Ivan Perisic celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates in front of a fire engine and crew on June 1, 2021
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Germany Germany00000
2 Hungary Hungary00000
3 Scotland flag Scotland00000
4 Switzerland Switzerland00000

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Albania national flag Albania00000
2 Croatia Croatia00000
3 Italy Italy00000
4 Spain Spain00000

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Denmark Denmark00000
2 England flag England00000
3 Serbia Serbia00000
4 Slovenia Slovenia00000

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Austria Austria00000
2 France France00000
3 Netherlands Netherlands00000
4 Poland Poland00000

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Belgium Belgium00000
2 Romania Romania00000
3 Slovakia Slovakia00000
4 Ukraine Ukraine00000

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Czech Republic Czech Republic00000
2 Georgia Georgia00000
3 Portugal Portugal00000
4 Turkey Turkey00000


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