There is a big game at the bottom of the Eredivisie on Sunday as RKC Waalwijk host Willem II.
Waalwijk are currently 15th in the table – just above the relegation playoff spot – while Willem are four points behind in 17th.
Match preview
© Reuters
RKC drew 1-1 with Heerenveen on Thursday evening, ending a run of four consecutive losses that led to their slide down the table.
Fred Grim's side trailed early on against De Superfriezen, but Richard van der Venne's second-half equaliser earned a point and Vitalie Damascan's shot that struck the post late on nearly snatched all three.
After being spared relegation by the curtailment of the 2019-20 season, Waalwijk lost their first three games of the current campaign and then went on a run of just two defeats in nine but have hit a troubling patch of form again, failing to win since the beginning of December.
They are the lowest scorers in the Eredivisie with just 14 goals to their name and have only won once at home all season.
However, something may have to give on Sunday as visitors Willem II have picked up just two points on the road all season, standing as one of two clubs yet to win away from home in the Eredivisie.
However, this is merely part of a wider problem – Adrie Koster's men have picked up just one point from their last seven matches, not winning since November 21.
On Thursday night, they led 2-1 against Europe-chasing Groningen with six minutes to play but lost the game 3-2, with the winning goal coming in the second minute of stoppage time, just after Willem themselves had had a goal ruled out by VAR.
It was the fourth time in their last six games that they had conceded at least three goals, and Koster has hinted that he may resign if things do not improve.
Unlike Waalwijk, Willem II were not in this predicament last season – placing fifth when the campaign was halted, earning qualification to the Europa League for the first time in 15 years.
Willem are unbeaten in their last eight games against Waalwijk, with the last RKC victory in this fixture coming in 2006 when Adrie Koster was in charge.
RKC Waalwijk Eredivisie form: WLLLLD
Willem II Eredivisie form: LLLDLL
Willem II form (all competitions): LLLDLL
Team News
© Reuters
Vurnon Anita is available again for Waalwijk after being suspended for their trip to Heerenveen and should take the place of Ayman Azhil in midfield.
Thierry Lutonda marked his first ever Eredivisie start with an assist on Thursday night so should keep his place at left-back.
Willem II confirmed the loan signing of Lindon Selahi from FC Twente on Friday, and the midfielder is in contention to make his debut on Sunday.
Selahi is likely to take the spot of Driess Saddiki, who is set for a spell on the sidelines after being forced off against Groningen with a leg injury.
Left-back Miquel Nelom has been out injured since the end of November but is set to be assessed ahead of the game and could be named on the bench. Robin Ruiter, though, remains absent for the visitors.
RKC Waalwijk possible starting lineup:
Lamprou; Bakari, Meulensteen, Touba, Lutonda; Tahiri, Anita; Efmorfidis, Van der Venne, Daneels; Stokkers
Willem II possible starting lineup:
Brondeel; Owusu, Holmen, Heijden, Kohn; Heerkens, Saglam, Selahi; Nunnely, Wriedt, Pavlidis
We say: RKC Waalwijk 1-0 Willem II
Given that both teams only played on Thursday night, their results may have an impact going into Sunday's game. Waalwijk will take confidence from their point against Heerenveen, while Willem may still be reeling from letting their lead slip against Groningen. Both teams are in horrendous form and in desperate need of a win, and we think that the home side will narrowly come out on top.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RKC Waalwijk win with a probability of 39.96%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a RKC Waalwijk win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Willem II win was 0-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
