Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 58.12%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 22.52% and a draw had a probability of 19.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.07%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (5.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Benfica |
58.12% ( 0.02) | 19.35% ( 0) | 22.52% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 68.83% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.85% ( -0.02) | 27.15% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52.32% ( -0.03) | 47.67% ( 0.03) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.5% ( -0) | 9.49% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.15% ( -0.01) | 31.84% ( 0) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.05% ( -0.02) | 23.94% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.82% ( -0.03) | 58.17% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Benfica |
2-1 @ 9.01% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.07% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.3% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 5.05% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.95% ( 0) 4-1 @ 4.16% 4-2 @ 2.98% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.91% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.96% 4-3 @ 1.42% ( -0) 5-2 @ 1.4% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.37% ( 0) Other @ 4.2% Total : 58.12% | 1-1 @ 7.65% ( 0) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.41% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.27% ( 0) Other @ 0.58% Total : 19.35% | 1-2 @ 5.47% 0-1 @ 3.25% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.07% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.32% 0-3 @ 1.11% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.68% Total : 22.52% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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