Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 73.48%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 9.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.16%) and 0-3 (10.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (3.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Estoril Praia | Draw | Porto |
9.43% | 17.09% | 73.48% |
Both teams to score 43.52% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.85% | 44.15% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.47% | 66.53% |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.63% | 51.37% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.41% | 85.59% |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.5% | 10.5% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.83% | 34.17% |
Score Analysis |
Estoril Praia | Draw | Porto |
1-0 @ 3.59% 2-1 @ 2.7% 2-0 @ 1.2% Other @ 1.94% Total : 9.43% | 1-1 @ 8.1% 0-0 @ 5.4% 2-2 @ 3.04% Other @ 0.56% Total : 17.09% | 0-2 @ 13.7% 0-1 @ 12.16% 0-3 @ 10.29% 1-2 @ 9.13% 1-3 @ 6.86% 0-4 @ 5.8% 1-4 @ 3.86% 0-5 @ 2.61% 2-3 @ 2.28% 1-5 @ 1.74% 2-4 @ 1.29% 0-6 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.78% Total : 73.48% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |