Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.54%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 29.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Tondela |
42.54% | 27.67% | 29.79% |
Both teams to score 47.34% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.84% | 58.16% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.18% | 78.82% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.96% | 27.04% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.6% | 62.4% |
Tondela Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.88% | 35.11% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.14% | 71.86% |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Tondela |
1-0 @ 12.41% 2-1 @ 8.5% 2-0 @ 8.12% 3-1 @ 3.71% 3-0 @ 3.54% 3-2 @ 1.94% 4-1 @ 1.21% 4-0 @ 1.16% Other @ 1.94% Total : 42.53% | 1-1 @ 12.99% 0-0 @ 9.49% 2-2 @ 4.45% Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.67% | 0-1 @ 9.94% 1-2 @ 6.8% 0-2 @ 5.2% 1-3 @ 2.37% 0-3 @ 1.81% 2-3 @ 1.55% Other @ 2.12% Total : 29.79% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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