Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 51.5%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 25.77% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-2 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Newcastle United |
51.5% ( 0.03) | 22.73% ( 0.03) | 25.77% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 60.11% ( -0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.88% ( -0.19) | 40.12% ( 0.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.51% ( -0.19) | 62.49% ( 0.2) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.29% ( -0.06) | 15.71% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.22% ( -0.11) | 44.78% ( 0.11) |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.32% ( -0.14) | 28.68% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.5% ( -0.18) | 64.5% ( 0.18) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Newcastle United |
2-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.34% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 7.72% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.95% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.76% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.71% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.2% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.69% Total : 51.5% | 1-1 @ 10.41% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.73% | 1-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.63% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.51% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0) Other @ 3.44% Total : 25.77% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arsenal | 35 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 85 | 28 | 57 | 80 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 82 | 32 | 50 | 79 |
3 | Liverpool | 35 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 77 | 36 | 41 | 75 |
4 | Aston Villa | 35 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 73 | 52 | 21 | 67 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 67 | 52 | 15 | 60 |
6 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 54 |
7 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 74 | 55 | 19 | 53 |
8 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 49 |
9 | Chelsea | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 63 | 59 | 4 | 48 |
10 | Bournemouth | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 52 | 60 | -8 | 48 |
11 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 35 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 46 |
12 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 52 | 57 | -5 | 44 |
13 | Fulham | 35 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 43 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 40 |
15 | Everton | 35 | 12 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 36 |
16 | Brentford | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 52 | 60 | -8 | 35 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 35 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 42 | 62 | -20 | 26 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 35 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 25 |
19 | Burnley | 35 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 38 | 70 | -32 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 35 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 34 | 97 | -63 | 16 |
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