CF Montreal will overtake New York City FC in the MLS Eastern Conference if they are victorious when the two clubs meet on Wednesday.
The Canadian side are currently eighth in the Eastern Conference on 16 points, only outside the playoff places on goal difference and just a point behind the Pigeons in fifth.
Match preview
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CF Montreal are currently on a four-match unbeaten streak (W2 D2), the longest they have gone without defeat since July 2018.
Wilfried Nancy's side won 1-0 against Inter Miami last time out as homegrown player Mathieu Choiniere scored his first ever MLS goal just before half time.
It was a fifth clean sheet in 11 games for Montreal and only Orlando City and Columbus Crew have conceded fewer goals in the Eastern Conference so far this season.
This game is down as a 'home' fixture for Montreal but due to Covid-19 cross border restrictions imposed by the Canadian government, they continue to ground-share with clubs in the United States; this match will be played at Orlando City's Exploria Stadium.
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New York City have picked up seven points from a possible 12 on the road so far this season and travel to Florida off the back of three consecutive home fixtures.
Last time out against DC United, the Pigeons secured a thrilling 2-1 win over DC United; they trailed from the ninth minute until the 84th minute when Keaton Parks headed in an equaliser, before Thiago Andrade netted a 95th-minute winner in dramatic circumstances.
It was a third win in four matches for Ronny Deila's side and helps them keep pace in what is a very tight Eastern Conference; they trail leaders New England Revolution by seven points but have two games in hand over the Massachusetts outfit.
The Blues have scored in all 10 of their MLS games so far in 2021, netting 18 goals in total; Jesus Medina has been the biggest contributor with five strikes to his name.
Since NYCFC joined MLS in 2015, they have only lost one of their 12 meetings with Montreal and that defeat came in their inaugural campaign.
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Team News
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CF Montreal's squad is being stretched to the limit, with several players unavailable. First-choice goalkeeper Clement Diop and strikers Erik Hurtado and Bjorn Johnsen are all injured.
Meanwhile, Romell Quioto (Honduras), Samuel Piette and Kamal Miller (both Canada) are on international duty at the Concacaf Gold Cup.
Winger Lassi Lappalainen is back from his own international exploits after representing Finland at Euro 2020 and he should build on the 45 minutes he played against Inter Miami.
New York City's squad has also been depleted by international fixtures as Sean Johnson and James Sands have been called up to the USA's Gold Cup squad, while Alex Callens remains at the Copa America with Peru.
Luis Barraza should stand in for Johnson in goal and Sebastien Ibeagha is likely to slot into defence to replace Sands.
Top scorer Jesus Medina went off injured in the first half against DC United and joins Heber on the sidelines.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Pantemis; Bassong, Camacho, Struna; Choiniere, Wanyama, Mihailovic, Lappalainen; Sejdic, Hamdi; Toye
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Barraza; Tinnerholm, Chanot, Ibeagha, Thorarinsson; Acevedo, Parks; Tajouri-Shradi, Moralez, Andrade; Castellanos
We say: CF Montreal 0-1 New York City FC
Both teams will have to adapt to losing key players to Gold Cup duty, but New York City look best-placed to deal with that and we think the visitors will take all three points. It will be an intriguing battle, though, with the Pigeons' wealth of attacking talent coming up against Montreal's sturdy defence.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 46.57%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 29.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.01%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 2-1 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
