Two resurgent Ligue 1 sides meet in the weekend's opening action as Lille welcome Saint-Etienne to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Friday evening.
Both sides have won three of their last five games, with the hosts closing in on the European spots and the visitors escaping the relegation zone.
Match preview
© Reuters
Lille made it back-to-back victories in the league last weekend, following up their narrow victory away at Lyon with a 4-0 thrashing of Clermont.
Jonathan Bamba opened the scoring after just three minutes and, after dominating much of the match, the floodgates opened for Les Dogues when Clermont's Salis Abdul Samed was dismissed shortly after the hour mark.
Jonathan David added his 13th goal of the campaign, before Turkish right-back Zeki Celik and Kosovo's Edon Zhegrova made it eight different nationalities to have scored Lille's last eight goals.
Those eight goals have eased Jocelyn Gourvennec's side to within touching distance of the European places, now just two places and two points behind fifth-placed Strasbourg.
Of course, the tight nature of the table means they could also fall all the way back to 10th with a loss this weekend, so they will have to keep their wits about them against another side on the rise.
© Reuters
The table is just as tight at the bottom as it is in the top half, and all four of the teams who came into last weekend locked together on 22 points at the bottom of the table met across two relegation six-pointers.
Saint-Etienne met Metz in one of those two matches, and succeeded in making it 10 points from their last five games with a crucial 1-0 win on home soil.
Gabon's Denis Bouanga had one goal ruled out early on for a handball - and could, if not should, have had a hat-trick over the course of the game - but eventually found the winner with a well-taken half volley early in the second half.
That result saw Les Verts finally escape danger, moving up to 17th for the first time since the first few weeks of the campaign.
Having picked up just two wins under Claude Puel in the first half of the season, Saint-Etienne have already managed four in 2022 as the revival under new manager Pascal Dupraz continues.
- L
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Lille boss Gourvennec has a fully-fit squad to choose from now that Burak Yilmaz has recovered from his groin issue with a substitute appearance against Clermont.
If he is deemed fit enough to return to the starting XI, it will be Hatem Ben Arfa who will most likely drop back to the bench.
Lynchpin Benjamin Andre also came back last match after a one-game ban, joining Xeka in the two-man defensive midfield, as David snapped a seven-game streak without a league goal.
The visitors, on the other hand, have a fair few injury problems to deal with - Saidou Sow, Enzo Crivelli and Yvann Macon are all out of action at the moment.
However, similarly to Yilmaz, Wahbi Khazri was able to return last time out from the bench and will now be pushing for a starting spot.
Lille possible starting lineup:
Jardim; Celik, Fonte, Botman, Gudmundsson; Andre, Xeka; Bamba, Ben Arfa, Sanches; David
Saint-Etienne possible starting lineup:
Bernardoni; Kolodziejczak, Nade, Mangala, Camara, Sacko; Nordin, Youssouf, Gourna-Douath, Boudebouz; Bouanga
We say: Lille 1-1 Saint-Etienne
As mentioned, both sides are in good form, and whilst the odds may favour the reigning champions with home advantage and a better recent record in this fixture, Dupraz's side have proven very difficult to beat. We can see them grabbing an away point here.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 58.53%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 17.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.43%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for a Saint-Etienne win it was 0-1 (6.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
